The Market: Summer Is Coming Edition
Summer is coming. There’s a saying about the stock market:
“Sell in May and go away.”
I’ll explain what that means later in this issue.
Everything I do is possible because of my early passion for the stock market. Learning to trade set me free.
When I say all that I do comes from trading, I mean ALL that I do. If I’d never learned to trade penny stocks I probably wouldn’t be making the following announcement…
“Save the Reef” Documentary Release Date: June 13
I’m super excited about this and it’s extremely important!
The “Save the Reef” documentary premieres in Hawaii on June 13. It will also be available on YouTube. I’ll mention this several times between now and then.
Please share the information.
Social media — for all the negative press in the last year — can truly change the world for the better. But only if we use it.
Please go right now and subscribe to Save the Reef.We’re creating a movement. The upcoming documentary isn’t a one-off… it’s only the beginning. While you’re there, check out the new trailer for the documentary.
…now you can support the cause by buying a Save the Reef t-shirt. Go to the Save the Reef site and click on the Help the Cause button. (Or just follow the link, which takes you to the Save the Reef collection on Karmagawa.)
I’ve been in Japan recently. I can’t give full details now, but we’re working with several fashion brands. The goal is to partner with them on charity collaborations.
Now, let’s get to some trading updates…
Stop Looking for Exact Numbers
Question: “Do you think the so-called ‘10,000-hour rule’ applies to learning to trade? Please give advice on what percentage of time I should study versus actual trading.”
I don’t know the exact number. People try to game numbers…
“How many hours did I study? Who’s the most dedicated student on Profitly?”
It’s not about hours. You have to learn the lessons. People learn differently and it’s a very inexact science. The 10,000 number was made popular by a book. But even the author of the book says people get it wrong — check it out.
I can tell you this…
All my top students have ONE thing in common: they’ve been the most dedicated students.
For example, my one student Mark watched all my video lessons three times. He’s the one who categorized and organized them. He added all the different tags.
Then there’s Steven…
I thought he was a hacker because he was studying video lessons and DVDs so much. He makes a joke that he was even studying on the toilet. That’s how much he’s studying. In between trading and eating, he’s studying.
Roland was studying 15–17 hours a day for the first year. All while trading and learning. Now he’s almost reached a huge milestone.
Those are just three examples — I could go on. The point is, I wouldn’t put a specific number on it. Here’s the answer…
Watch everything on Profitly. Watch every video lesson, webinar, and DVD. Watch them more than once.
And stop trying to cheat success!
People want to watch the videos at two times speed. Watch them at half speed, OK? The education we have here is so unique, so potentially life-changing… but you have to take it seriously.
So, watch. But don’t just watch, do this:
- Take notes.
- Learn the rules.
- Learn the patterns and setups.
- Learn the Sykes Sliding Scale to evaluate potential stocks to trade.
- Create a watchlist and a trading plan.
- Take it seriously.
How long will it take you to get good? Will it take 10,000 hours?
Remember, that number was debunked. We’re all different.
Anyone can go through the motions for 10,000 hours and not progress beyond a certain point. You have to have focus. Focus is more about intent than the number of hours.
Want to know the big problem? Most people aren’t willing to put in the time regardless of the number of hours, days, weeks, months, or years. Stop trying to cheat success. And stop trying to turn it into an exact science.
Make a decision you’re going to do it and then do it.
Then it doesn’t matter how long it takes. What matters is your intention, desire, and dedication. Make every hour of your study count. Focus. Pay attention. Set the intention that you’ll focus for 30 minutes or an hour. Then get up for a few minutes and stretch. Come back and hit it again.
“What’s the biggest lesson you have from a recent trade?”
The biggest lesson is that I’m not trading as much right now. Remember the saying from the top of this post?
“Sell in May and Go Away.”
It’s the first half of an old English saying: “Sell in May and go away, and come on back on St. Leger’s Day.”
Historically, London traders, bankers, and aristocracy left the city for the summer. They sold everything in their portfolio and held a cash position. Now it’s a well-known adage in the financial world.
Statistically, the stock market isn’t as good in May, June, July… all the way through October.
That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t trade. There are years when it’s wrong. Especially since 2013.
And… since what I teach is day trading, you can still trade during the six months from May to October.
But consider trading a little less. I’m being a little pickier. I was trying to dip-buy one of my favorite spider silk stocks, like, a dozen times and it didn’t bounce properly.
So, I am still trying. I’m testing. But I’m not finding success so I minimize trading.
You can do the same. Take smaller position sizes and be more conservative when you don’t see anything truly great. Build self-discipline into your trading. These statistically slower months are a good time for that.
“In a video lesson, you said your Stein Mart trade was well executed. The joint press release by Stein Mart and Amazon was another example of the big company executive praising the small company. Would you please discuss this trade?”
I saw Stein Mart, Inc (NASDAQ: SMRT) partner with Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) in this press release. Even if it’s a fluff deal that doesn’t bring in a lot of money, it can be a catalyst for big price action.
SMRT is a former runner partnering with Amazon. It’s a big, big, big credibility boost. Especially for a company that’s near bankrupt.
I thought it could run based on the press release. And it did.
But I still underestimated it, butI was right on track. I was right in that moment. It faded on days two, three, and four. But for an entire 24 hours, it performed nicely.
The key to my success on this trade wasn’t chasing the initial spike but waiting for the dip.
Then, I wasn’t greedy. I took the single, selling near the day high when it failed a convincing breakout. I knew it could keep spiking if it took out the day high at $1.30, but volume wasn’t as much as I’d like so I played it safe. About 10 minutes later the stock did take out the day high with increased volume.
The lesson: it’s not just about how the stock will do in the long run. It’s good to remember former runners, spiking on big volume, with a seemingly solid catalyst. In other words, can it spike in the short-term based on what’s happening?
Sometimes you see these short squeezes of absolutely terrible companies. And yes, they’re still terrible companies in the long run. But because they’re so heavily shorted, they can run further than you think.
Remember, head over to Save the Reef and join the mailing list. We still haven’t had time to build out the site as we’re so busy completing the documentary.
But it will get done. This is important work, and we need your help.
Start studying today. Don’t bother if you’re not ready to work your tail off. But if you are ready… now’s the time.
— Tim Sykes
Editor, Penny Stock Millionaires