You see, BP has a 20% stake in the company, and with Western sanctions taking affect, Rosneft is cut off from foreign lending.
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The fall in Russia’s currency hasn’t helped, either. In fact, it’s lost more than one-fifth of its value since the start of this year.
According to Simon Derrick, of Bank of New York Mellon, this doesn’t sit well for any oil companies: “As we continue to see the dollar rally, that will help put downward pressure on oil prices – and, therefore, I think it’ll continue to be a struggle not only for oil companies, but also oil-related currencies.”
Rosneft’s 2014 third-quarter net income was a mere $110 million, chump change compared to the $808 million they made a year earlier.
Oil prices are still hovering around $85 a barrel – a four-year low – as Chinese demand slows down and supplies remain ample.
All considered, BP is in between a rock and a hard place.
Domino Effect: From Oil to Equities
It’s not just oil companies getting knocked around, though, equity markets are in the ring too.
“If you look at the performance from peak to recent trough in terms of equity markets around the world, energy companies contributed an outsize portion to that downfall, thanks to declining oil revenue,” says Barclays’ Will Hobbs.
Fortunately, though, it’s not all bad for BP. Its profits were around what was expected, hitting $3 billion, and its dividend is going to rise 5.3%.
Looking at the long term, BP is on track for a $30-billion net cash flow in 2014 – post selling assets and cutting costs (following the Gulf of Mexico oil spill).
And “the chase” continues,
Commodities Research Team