It seems as though just about everyone around the globe has been glued to their TV screens at home or at nearby pubs, cheering on their teams in this year’s World Cup. These fans have waited four years for this moment.
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A win could cause a huge celebration, but what about a loss? Could a World Cup defeat be that bad… bad enough to affect the stock market in the country of the losing team?
It’s certainly possible that big sporting defeats can cause mini stock market crashes, according to Alex Edmans, a finance professor at the London Business School and Wharton.
The market fell 0.4% after England lost to Italy. When the Netherlands crushed Spain, the market fell by 1% the next day. On both of these days, the world markets were flat.
In several other instances, when a country lost a game (and also had an active stock market), the nation’s primary equity index fell faster than the world market.
However, we think this analysis is pure folly.
After all, if Germany’s 7-1 drubbing of Brazil didn’t produce a full-blown Bovespa crash, then the thesis must be flawed.
Instead, investors should focus on global value. World Cup host Brazil happens to be one of the cheapest stocks markets in the world.
While the iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ) has been a crowd favorite in the past, investors should stay internationally diversified. In other words, don’t select just one country that you think is attractive.
A great choice is the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL) – which not only holds Brazilian equities at the moment, but also stocks in nine other cheap markets well: Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Israel, Australia, Russia, Greece, and the Czech Republic.
The fund has a truly unique approach, so definitely check out the details on the Cambria website.
Income Research Team