“Is gold’s record-setting run over?”
After five record highs in six sessions, the yellow metal is now enduring its second day of losses.
As I write, prices have dropped almost 6%, well below $1,800 per ounce. Barring a massive late-day rally, this is going to be one of the 10 worst days for gold.
Of course, the financial headlines are already chalking up the decline to profit taking and a possible reversal for the precious metal. And it makes sense, considering gold’s meteoric ascent over the past year.
Gold is up about 28% year-to-date, compared to a 6.4% decline for stocks, represented by the S&P 500 Index.
But I wouldn’t rush for the exits just yet. I know. That sounds hypocritical for me since I’ve never been much of a gold bug. But a historical precedent exists to hang tight… at least until Friday.
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That’s when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to give a speech at the central bank’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. And given the sluggish economic growth, we can’t rule out another round of some type of quantitative easing program.
You’ll recall, it was the speech at the August 27, 2010 meeting that Bernanke hinted at the now infamous QE2. And it’s possible the Fed could be getting set to hint at – or even announce – another major initiative to stimulate U.S. economic growth.
And guess what happened to gold prices the last time the Fed made such an announcement in Jackson Hole? You got it! The precious metal rallied… 4.5% over the next 30 days and 11.1% over the next 90 days.
Bottom line: Based on history, the recent selloff in gold could prove to be a momentary pause. It all just depends on the Fed. Now isn’t that a scary thought?
Ahead of the tape,