The Greatest Short Opportunity Ever

Comments (1)

  1. I agree with many points made in this post:
    – FaceBook – unlike Google – does not provide an essential service to it’s users.
    – The fast growth of it’s user base can’t continue and is showing signs of reaching saturation.
    -FB valuation of near $100b is very unrealistic and indicative of another major Bubble. Great comparison with Cisco’s fundamentals.
    – Signing up with FB does not require a credit card (like Amazon or Apple). Hence the number of users is not directly an indicator for the business it can generate. Many FB users are teenagers in developing countries who have little to no disposable income. Hence from a revenue-generating potential they hardly count.

    I want to point out some not so “rational mathematics” in your own article, though: The numbers listed for Chiptole show doubling in 5 years to about 1000 stores. To reach about 13.000 stores it would need to double four more times, i.e. grow another 4 * 5 = 20 years – not 100 years. If it grew for another 100 years at that pace, it would double 100 / 5 = 20 times, which would result in approx. 1 billion stores, 3 for every citizen in the US.


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